气候变化下青藏高原全缘叶绿绒蒿的潜在分布变迁
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国家自然科学基金(31560127);甘肃省自然科学基金(21JR11RA023);西北民族大学中央高校基本科研业务费(31920220061);西北民族大学智能计算与动力系统分析及其应用创新团队资助项目


Potential Distribution of Meconopsis integrifolia on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under Climate Change
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    摘要:

    青藏高原物种丰富且属于气候变化敏感区,研究气候变化对青藏高原物种的潜在分布影响,对于该区域物种多样性保护具有重要意义。该研究以一级濒危藏药植物全缘叶绿绒蒿为研究对象,利用加权平均算法(weighted average algorithm, WAA)构建随机森林(RF)、灵活判别分析(FDA)及人工神经网络(ANN)的集成模型,同时对比分析了WAA模型和不同生态位模型的预测精度。最后利用WAA模型预测了全缘叶绿绒蒿在当前(1970~2000年平均)和未来(2041~2060年平均)气候情景下的潜在分布,其中未来气候考虑了2种“共享社会经济路径”(SSP2-45和SSP5-85)。结果显示:(1) WAA模型的预测表明,基于RF、FDA和ANN的集成模型的AUC值为0.926,在AUC值最高RF模型的基础上提高了3%,在FDA和ANN模型的AUC值的基础上均提高了5%。(2) WAA模型确定,全缘叶绿绒蒿的潜在分布对年降水量和最暖季降水量最为敏感,其次是最热月份最高气温,同时对最湿月份降水量以及等温性表现出较低的敏感性。(3) 当前全缘叶绿绒蒿潜在分布区主要分布在甘肃西南部、青海东部至南部、四川西部和西北部、云南西北部和东北部、西藏东部。(4)未来气候变化下青藏高原全缘叶绿绒蒿潜在分布预测表明,在2050年SSP2-45情景下,全缘叶绿绒蒿的潜在分布区大小与当前潜在分布区大小基本相同,但整体向西北方向高海拔高纬度地区迁移;在SSP5-85情景下,全缘叶绿绒蒿的潜在分布区明显收缩,且向西北高纬度高海拔地区延伸的趋势更加明显。

    Abstract:

    Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is rich in species, and belongs to the climate change sensitive area. Studying the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of species on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is of great significance for the biodiversity conservation. In this study, we selected the endangered Tibetan medicinal plant Meconopsis integrifolia as the research object, and constructed an ensemble model of Random Forest (RF), Flexible Discriminant Analysis (FDA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) using the weighted average algorithm (WAA). At the same time, we also compared the prediction accuracy of the WAA model and different ecological niche models. Finally, we used the WAA model to predict the potential distributions of M. integrifolia under current (averaged 1970-2000) and future (averaged 2041-2060) climate scenarios. For the uncertainty of future climate, we chose two “Shared Socioeconomic Pathways” (SSP2-45 and SSP5-85). The results showed that: (1) the WAA model predictions showed that the AUC of the ensemble model based on RF, FDA and ANN was 0.926, which was 3% higher than that of the RF model with the highest AUC value, and 5% higher than the AUC value for both FDA and ANN models. (2) The WAA model determined that the potential distribution of M. integrifolia was most sensitive to annual precipitation and precipitation of warmest quarter, followed by max temperature of warmest month, and showed lower sensitivity to precipitation of wettest month and isothermality. (3) The current potential distribution areas of M. integrifolia were mainly distributed in southwestern Gansu, eastern and southern Qinghai, western and northwestern Sichuan, northwestern and northeastern Yunnan, and eastern Tibet. (4) The prediction of potential distribution of M. integrifolia on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under future climate change showed that under the SSP2-45 scenario in 2050, the size of potential distribution of M. integrifolia was basically the same as that of current, but the potential distribution would spread to the high altitudes and latitudes in the northwest. However, under the SSP5-85 scenario, the size of potential distribution of M. integrifolia would shrink significantly, and the trend of spreading to the northwest high-altitude and -altitude areas was more obvious.

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郭雯雯,王文婷.气候变化下青藏高原全缘叶绿绒蒿的潜在分布变迁[J].西北植物学报,2023,43(4):708-716

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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-05-15
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